Clem Sunter | The World and SA: the latest flags, scenarios and possibilities to look out for - Latest News

Clem Sunter | The World and SA: the latest flags, scenarios and possibilities to look out for

The green flag of climate change is causing the world to warm, but more importantly, it is causing a higher frequency of very dangerous weather events.

The green flag of climate change is causing the world to warm, but more importantly, it is causing a higher frequency of very dangerous weather events.

As the planet deteriorates, climate change begins Clem Center It takes a look at 11 global caution flags for the next 10 years. Five were also considered back home with the general election fast approaching.

Here is my choice of the 11 flags to watch to judge the scenario prevailing in the entire world over the next 10 years. They represent the main forces that lead the present into the future.

Religious science, resulting from the major religions of Christianity, Islam and Judaism compete intensely with one another. This science led to 9/11 in September 2001 and now focuses on the current unrest in Israel and the possibility of Iran developing a nuclear bomb.

The science of leadership about the quality of world leaders at a particular moment in history and whether they participate in a positive or negative relationship. The current collection is very old, uninspired and unrelated to each other. They are pursuing their own agendas. Sometimes it takes a whole new generation of world leaders to set the world on a different course.

Red flag for Russia, China and North Korea. With Russia, the question is whether the conflict in Ukraine will escalate into World War III or end in the negotiation of some kind of peace agreement. There is little chance at the moment that one side or the other will win the war. With China, the central issue is Taiwan and the country’s deteriorating political and trade relations with America. For North Korea, it is the unpredictability of its leader who has nuclear weapons at his disposal.

Read | Clem Santer: With storms brewing both globally and nationally, do our leaders have what it takes?

The gray flag that the populations of Japan, Europe, the United Kingdom and China are now aging, which may negatively affect the long-term economic growth prospects of those countries. By contrast, America has a younger and more resilient population which boosts the health of its economy. India also has a young demographic profile which means it could be heading to the top of the global economic rankings in the second half of this century.

The green flag of climate change is causing the world to warm, but more importantly, creating a higher frequency of extremely dangerous weather events. These range from atmospheric rivers that bring heavy rains that lead to devastating floods in some areas; and more severe and prolonged droughts in other regions. El Niño is expected to exacerbate the situation later this year. The conflicted relationship between the major powers means it’s all talk and little action to cut the world’s carbon emissions right now. In addition, green technologies and infrastructure need to be scaled up to make ordinary consumers willingly reduce their carbon emissions.

  • Anti-establishment science

The anti-establishment science of the growing polarization within society caused by the spread of social media and the increasing wealth inequality between the rich and the poor. This has led to a decline in real debate about the major issues affecting life today. people on one side or the other. There is no pooling of different opinions to make progress.

The porous flag of borders Rich countries are seeing a significant increase in the number of illegal immigrants trying to cross their borders in order to live a better life in new conditions. There are so many personal tragedies that happen to refugees and their families as they flee poverty and war with no moral solution in sight. However, climate change could cause numbers to rise as parts of the planet become uninhabitable.

The science of debt Easy monetary policies since the 2008 financial crash have created the possibility of dangerous debt defaults by governments or homeowners saddled with large mortgages. This is particularly the case now that interest rates have risen from zero to five percent to combat inflation. Adding to potential problems, the recent decline in commodity prices indicates that the global economy is not yet in a position to fully recover from the recent lockdown. It could even lead to another recession.

Epidemiology has not gone away because there may be another virus such as bird flu or a new type of coronavirus.

Space science crowded with the possibility of a collision in space between rockets and satellites that could disrupt global communications and banking systems.

  • The science of artificial intelligence

The science of artificial intelligence is so new that no one has yet figured out the real positive and negative aspects of it. For example, will it create a lot of new jobs or will it drive people out of their current jobs? Will it enhance or jeopardize cyber security? Will you eventually take over the human race?

global scenarios

The two primary global scenarios that flow from these flags are a “friendly planet” in which a new generation of world leaders creates a more cooperative world in which climate change and other international issues are addressed in a positive way; versus a “gilded cage” where the West would huddle together in its own cage and let the rest of the world sort itself out as long as there was no danger to Western interests.

Meanwhile, the planet Earth is deteriorating as climate change begins. The flags indicate that we are currently in the second scenario until the world has new leaders.

In terms of the future of South Africa, there are five flags to watch:

  • Criminology and corruption

criminology and corruption and whether we are making genuine attempts to bring it down.

Quality infrastructure science in areas such as electricity supply, railways, ports, education and health care. For this flag to be positive, there needs to be a proper alliance between government and the private sector.

  • The science of entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurial science, where young entrepreneurs are given appropriate support systems to open and grow businesses and where township economies are successfully integrated into the mainstream economy.

The flag of the 2024 elections, when the result could be much closer than the previous elections since 1994, especially with talk of coalitions between parties. Moreover, there may be a sudden shift from the trend of increasing voter abstention and apathy to persuading people to vote positively for change by placing a cross against a different party on the ballot. However, this will only happen if, when campaigning, all parties make it clear what exactly they will do to improve the lives of young people, if they are elected to lead the country.

Flag of neutrality as South Africa ensures that it walks a middle way in the currently divided world and maintains its trade relations with its major external trading partners.

Read | Clem Sunter: Popular Economics or a Cautionary Tale: How do we ensure that the best-case scenario plays out in SA?

The two main scenarios for South Africa flying off these flags are a “popular economy” where steps are taken to create a real entrepreneurial-driven economy that grows from the ground up, while infrastructure and services are strengthened through a lasting partnership between government and the private sector; and a “cautionary tale” as the economy falters, civil unrest increases, and the country begins to descend toward a wasteland of misery.

Right now, the flags say we are in a 50:50 situation with the odds evenly distributed between the two scenarios. This is why the 2024 election could be a turning point either way in terms of the nation’s future over the next ten years.

– Clem Center Futurist, keynote speaker and script planner.

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